and stares horrified into 2017.
Prediction is difficult. Who would have thought a year ago that ransomware would now come with customer care, or that Russia would be openly accused of hacking a bombastic businessman into the Whitehouse. Who even dreamed Yahoo would admit to a billion-account compromise?
So, with that in mind, it's time to gaze into the abyss and despair…
Let's get the obvious stuff out of the way first. Mega credential breaches won't go away. With so many acres of forgotten code handling access to back end databases, it's inevitable that the record currently held by Yahoo for the largest account breach will be beaten.
Similarly, ransomware is only just beginning. Already a billion-dollar industry, it's cheap to buy into and easy to profit from. New techniques are already emerging as gangs become more sophisticated. First came the audacious concept of customer service desks to help victims through the process of forking over the ransom. By the end of 2016, the Popcorn Time ransomware gang was offering decryption for your data if you infect two of your friends who subsequently pay up. With this depth of innovation already in place, 2017 will hold even greater horrors for those who naively click attachments.
Targeted social engineering and phishing attacks will also continue to thrive, with innovative
It's also obvious that the Internet of Things will continue to be outrageously insecure, leading to DDoS attacks that will make the 1.1Tbps attack on hosting company OVH look trivial. The IoT will also make ransomware delivery even more efficient, as increasing armies of compromised devices pump out the pink stuff. By the end of 2017, I predict hacking groups (government-backed or otherwise) will have amassed enough IoT firepower to knock small nations offline. November's test of a Mirai botnet against Liberia was a prelude to the carnage to come.
Bitcoin recently passed the $1,000 mark for the first time in three years, which means criminals will want even more than ever to steal the anonymous cryptocurrency. However, a flash crash in value is also likely as investors take profits and the market panics in response to a sudden fall. It's happened before, most noticeably at the end of 2013. There's also the distinct possibility that the growth in value is due to ransomware, in which case the underlying rally will continue regardless of profit takers.
The state-sponsored use of third party hacking groups brings with it plausible deniability, but proof cannot stay hidden forever. One infiltration, one defection, one prick of conscience, and someone will spill the beans regardless of the personal cost. It's highly likely that 2017 will include major revelations of widespread state-sponsored hacking.
This leads me neatly on to Donald Trump and his mercurial grasp of "the cyber". We've already delved into what he may do as president, and much of what we know comes straight from the man himself. For example, we already know he skips his daily security briefings because they are "repetitive", and prefers to ask people around him what's going on because "You know, I'm, like, a smart person."
Trump's insistence on cracking down on foreign workers will have a direct impact on the ability of the US to defend itself in cyberspace. The shift from filling jobs with overseas expertise to training homegrown talent has no discernible transition plan. This will leave a growing skills gap for several years as new college graduates find their way to the workplace. This shortfall will be exploited by foreign threat actors.
Then there's Trump's pompous and wildly indiscreet Twitter feed. Does the world really need to know when secret security briefings are postponed, or what he thinks of the intelligence presented in those meetings? In espionage circles, everything is information, and Trump needs to understand that. I predict that his continued use of social media will lead to internal conflict and resignations this year, as those charged with national cybersecurity finally run out of patience.
There's also a huge hole in "fake news" just begging to be filled. I predict that 2017 will see the establishment of an infosec satire site. Just as The Onion has unwittingly duped lazy journalists in the past, there's scope for the same level of hilarity in the cybersecurity community.
However, by far the biggest threat to life online in 2017 will continue to be the end user. Without serious primetime TV and radio campaigns explicitly showing exactly what to look for, users will continue to casually infect themselves and the companies they work for with ransomware, and to give up their credentials to phishing sites. When challenged, I also predict that governments will insist the problem is being addressed.
So, all in all, it's business as usual.